As the Baathist regime of President Bashar al-Assad continues to arrest and slaughter demonstrators on the streets of Syria…
…Tayyip Erdoğan – Prime Minister of neighbouring Turkey, is being further drawn into the complex politics of the ‘Arab Spring’.
Already Erdoğan (an authoritarian leader, though by no means as tyrannical as the likes of al-Assad) had made cynical political moves in response to the Libyan uprising – in order to win favour from the USA and Europe, as well as to divert attention from his administration’s own domestic abuses, particularly recent attacks on press freedom. Openly condemning the Gaddafi regime, even whilst opposing proposals for a no fly zone, was enough to endear the Turkish leader to key players in the international community without presenting him with any significant political risk. Responding to the crisis in Syria however, is causing him a much bigger headache.
Initially the Turkish authorities remained painfully quiet about the violent crackdown on protests across the border, a stance undoubtedly shaped at least in part by ever-expanding economic ties with their neighbour and what appears to be an strong personal relationship between Erdoğan and al-Assad. This presented a strange paradox whereby the same government that was one of the most vocal critics when Israeli forces murdered nine peace activists heading towards Gaza, became one of the most reluctant critics when Syrian troops massacred many times more civilians.
In the last few days however, Syrian state violence has forced hundreds of refugees across the Turkish border, turning foreign policy into domestic and prompting Erdoğan to formally call for an end to the crackdown. As a caveat, his administration has drawn up plans for Turkish-run refugee camps on Syrian soil; something that is distinctly unlikely to be sanctioned, but which nevertheless illustrates the seriousness with which they view the potential of a mass influx of those fleeing the violence.